Russia’s offer to “fundamentally cut back” its military operations in northern Ukraine sparked optimism around the potential for a peace deal Tuesday, easing oil prices and boosting equity markets. Yet there’s strong reason for caution.
Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky presented the decision to draw back from the capital, Kyiv, and the northern city of Chernihiv as de-escalatory, but it is likely also to be tactical.
Not only has Ukraine’s military been inflicting losses and taking back some territory around Kyiv in any case, but Russian commanders had already said they planned to re-concentrate their forces in the east, where they have made greater progress with the city of Mariupol in the final stages of a brutal siege.
De-escalation does not mean a cease-fire or complete withdrawal of troops from around the capital, said one person close to the Kremlin. And Russia is still setting out demands for sweeping concessions that Ukraine is unlikely to agree to.
